Market Flow
Multi-market YES odds flow
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Active market
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YES chance0.3%
NO chance99.7%
Last trade0.3%
Best bid0.3%
Best ask0.4%
Min order5 contracts
Market Tape
LIVE| Market | YES | Min |
|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win the 202... | 0.1% | 5 |
| France win the 2026 FIF... | 38.7% | 5 |
| Spain win the 2026 FIFA... | 19.9% | 5 |
| SCOTUS accepts sports e... | 1.3% | 5 |
| Dplus win the LCK 2026... | 2.1% | 5 |
| KT Rolster win the LCK... | 1.3% | 5 |
| Argentina reach the Sem... | 99.9% | -- |
| Half-Life 3 be announce... | 13.0% | 5 |
| Switzerland reach the S... | 0.1% | -- |
| Ousmane Dembélé win the... | 4.4% | 5 |
| Lionel Messi win the Br... | 7.0% | 5 |
| Mohamed Salah win the 2... | 0.2% | 5 |
| Ousmane Dembélé win the... | 16.6% | 5 |
| Bruno Fernandes win the... | 0.1% | 5 |
| 5 Fed rate cuts happen... | 0.3% | 5 |
| Jesus Christ return bef... | 49.0% | 5 |
| any country leave NATO... | 4.5% | 5 |
| OpenAI not IPO by Decem... | 79.0% | 5 |
Conviction marketFinanceGlobal
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
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0.3% YES
99.7% NO
Event Details
Resolution summary
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
- Category
- Finance
- Region
- Global
- Topic
- Finance
- Resolution
- Dec 31, 2026
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