Market Flow
Multi-market YES odds flow
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Active market
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YES chance10.0%
NO chance90.0%
Last trade10.0%
Best bid10.0%
Best ask11.0%
Min order5 contracts
Market Tape
LIVE| Market | YES | Min |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco win the 2026 FI... | 2.8% | 5 |
| Switzerland win the 202... | 2.1% | 5 |
| Argentina win the 2026... | 20.1% | 5 |
| Norway win the 2026 FIF... | 6.0% | 5 |
| Half-Life 3 be announce... | 15.0% | 5 |
| Switzerland reach the S... | 25.8% | -- |
| no Fed rate cuts happen... | 79.0% | 5 |
| Norway reach the Semifi... | 35.0% | -- |
| England reach the Semif... | 65.0% | -- |
| Bruno Fernandes win the... | 0.1% | 5 |
| France reach the Semifi... | 78.0% | -- |
| Spain reach the Semifin... | 76.0% | -- |
| Mohamed Salah win the 2... | 0.2% | 5 |
| Lamine Yamal win the 20... | 7.0% | 5 |
| any country leave NATO... | 4.5% | 5 |
| Valve add Cache to the... | 99.0% | 5 |
| OpenAI not IPO by Decem... | 79.0% | 5 |
| LNG Esports win the LPL... | 0.1% | 5 |
Conviction marketFinanceUnited States
US recession by end of 2026?
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10.0% YES
90.0% NO
Event Details
Resolution summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- Category
- Finance
- Region
- United States
- Topic
- Finance
- Resolution
- Jan 31, 2027
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