Market Flow
YES odds flow
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YES chance48.0%
NO chance52.0%
Last trade48.0%
Best bid39.0%
Best ask47.0%
Min order5 contracts
Market Tape
LIVE| Market | YES | Min |
|---|---|---|
| Canada win the 2026 FIF... | 0.4% | 5 |
| Switzerland win the 202... | 0.8% | 5 |
| Ivory Coast win the 202... | 0.3% | 5 |
| Mexico win the 2026 FIF... | 1.6% | 5 |
| Norway win the 2026 FIF... | 2.8% | 5 |
| Senegal win the 2026 FI... | 0.2% | 5 |
| Colombia win the 2026 F... | 1.5% | 5 |
| Series: Anyone's Legend... | 99.9% | 5 |
| Wes Moore win the 2028... | 0.8% | 5 |
| Starmer out by June 30,... | 67.0% | 5 |
| Claudio Tapia out as AF... | 1.0% | 5 |
| Göztepe SK vs. Çaykur R... | 0.9% | 5 |
| France win Group I in t... | 79.0% | 5 |
| Norway win Group I in t... | 21.0% | 5 |
| Morocco win Group C in... | 33.0% | 5 |
| Egypt win Group G in th... | 64.0% | 5 |
| Jasmine Crockett win th... | 0.7% | 5 |
| a team from LCP (Asia-P... | 0.4% | 5 |
Conviction marketTechGlobal
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Review the event and pricing before requesting margin
48.0% YES
52.0% NO
Event Details
Resolution summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
- Category
- Tech
- Region
- Global
- Topic
- Tech
- Resolution
- Jun 30, 2026
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