Market Tape

LIVE
MarketYESMin
Ukraine election held b...6.3%5
China x India military...8.0%5
Pump.fun perform an air...4.2%5
Ukraine recognizes Russ...1.7%5
OpenAI not IPO by Decem...94.7%5
Trump eliminates capita...4.2%5
OpenAI launch a new con...18.0%5
7 Fed rate cuts happen...0.1%5
any country leave NATO...6.7%5
Half-Life 3 be announce...18.0%5
MoistCr1TiKaL get a hai...1.0%5
US recession by end of...7.0%5
Hyperliquid perform an...35.0%5
a team from CBLOL (Braz...0.2%5
Mike Johnson out as Spe...9.0%5
Hyperliquid perform an...26.0%5
a team from LEC (Europe...2.0%5
SCOTUS accepts sports e...18.0%5
Conviction marketTechGlobal

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

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18.0% YES
82.0% NO

Market Flow

Multi-market YES odds flow

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Active market
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YES chance18.0%
NO chance82.0%
Last trade18.0%
Best bid22.0%
Best ask50.0%
Min order5 contracts

Event Details

Resolution summary

LIVE

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

Category
Tech
Region
Global
Topic
Tech
Resolution
Jan 1, 2027

Margin Request

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5X
1X1X3X Max

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USDC
Vault balance: 0.00 USDC
Outcome:YES
Your collateral:$0.00
Vault liquidity used:$0.00
Total position size:$0.00
Estimated shares:--
Visibility:PRIVATE
Liquidation trigger:15.5%

Vault deposits form the liquidity pool. Traders use their deposited balance as collateral, then borrow extra pool liquidity for leverage. Vault depositors earn yield from fees and risk premiums as the system matures.

Markets21
NetworkTESTNET
ModeRequest