Market Flow
YES odds flow
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YES chance0.2%
NO chance99.8%
Last trade0.2%
Best bid0.2%
Best ask0.4%
Min order5 contracts
Market Tape
LIVE| Market | YES | Min |
|---|---|---|
| Canada win the 2026 FIF... | 0.4% | 5 |
| Switzerland win the 202... | 0.8% | 5 |
| Ivory Coast win the 202... | 0.3% | 5 |
| Mexico win the 2026 FIF... | 1.6% | 5 |
| Norway win the 2026 FIF... | 2.8% | 5 |
| Senegal win the 2026 FI... | 0.2% | 5 |
| Colombia win the 2026 F... | 1.5% | 5 |
| Series: Anyone's Legend... | 99.9% | 5 |
| Wes Moore win the 2028... | 0.8% | 5 |
| Starmer out by June 30,... | 67.0% | 5 |
| Claudio Tapia out as AF... | 1.0% | 5 |
| Göztepe SK vs. Çaykur R... | 0.9% | 5 |
| France win Group I in t... | 79.0% | 5 |
| Norway win Group I in t... | 21.0% | 5 |
| Morocco win Group C in... | 33.0% | 5 |
| Egypt win Group G in th... | 64.0% | 5 |
| Jasmine Crockett win th... | 0.7% | 5 |
| a team from LCP (Asia-P... | 0.4% | 5 |
Conviction marketGeopoliticsEurope
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
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0.2% YES
99.8% NO
Event Details
Resolution summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Region
- Europe
- Topic
- Geopolitics
- Resolution
- Dec 31, 2025
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