Market Flow
Multi-market YES odds flow
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Active market
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YES chance2.3%
NO chance97.7%
Last trade2.3%
Best bid2.3%
Best ask2.4%
Min order5 contracts
Market Tape
LIVE| Market | YES | Min |
|---|---|---|
| ThunderTalk Gaming win... | 0.2% | 5 |
| any country leave NATO... | 2.3% | 5 |
| Ukraine election held b... | 5.0% | 5 |
| Team WE win the LPL 202... | 10.0% | 5 |
| Pump.fun perform an air... | 10.0% | 5 |
| Harry Kane win the 2026... | 51.6% | 5 |
| OpenAI launch a new con... | 44.0% | 5 |
| Jude Bellingham win the... | 0.4% | 5 |
| Lamine Yamal win the 20... | 21.5% | 5 |
| Lionel Messi win the 20... | 3.4% | 5 |
| 7 Fed rate cuts happen... | 0.2% | 5 |
| Trump eliminates capita... | 4.9% | 5 |
| a team from CBLOL (Braz... | 0.2% | 5 |
| OpenAI not IPO by Decem... | 83.0% | 5 |
| Anyone's Legend win the... | 18.0% | 5 |
| MoistCr1TiKaL get a hai... | 85.0% | 5 |
| Kraken IPO by December... | 19.0% | 5 |
| Half-Life 3 be announce... | 23.0% | 5 |
Conviction marketGeopoliticsGlobal
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
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2.3% YES
97.7% NO
Event Details
Resolution summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Region
- Global
- Topic
- Geopolitics
- Resolution
- Dec 31, 2026
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