Conviction Markets

Margin desk

Open margin from real market prices.

Vault
Base Sepolia
Collateral
USDC
Markets
1
Wallet
--

Open margin

Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics
Details
Reference
3.4%
Exposure
Enter margin
Borrowed
Enter margin
Guard
2.8%

Enter outcome shares greater than zero.

Market flow

YES price candles

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Last trade
3c
Best bid
5c
Best ask
5c
Min order
5 contracts

Conviction renders synced price history inside the product. When history is unavailable, the chart shows only the latest stored bid, ask, and trade snapshot.

Conviction rules view

Market details and resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution date
12/31/2026
YES token
Mapped
NO token
Mapped

Conviction keeps upstream feed URLs internal. Users review rules, signals, margin, and vault risk inside this product.

Social layer

Turn the market into a public thesis.

Share the odds, publish a signal, or start the debate around this market. Conversations stay public; execution still requires the core API and wallet flow.

Lens
Global / Geopolitics
Signals
0
Market
Conviction

Signal desk

Publish the thesis behind the trade.

Signals are real Farcaster-sourced records tied to synced markets. They stay separate from execution until the core API confirms a live adapter.

Signal ticket3.4%
Focused market
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GeopoliticsWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?3.4%

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Signals

Market signals

No signals yet

The core API has no signals for this market.