Market Flow
Multi-market YES odds flow
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Active market
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YES chance1.6%
NO chance98.4%
Last trade1.6%
Best bid1.8%
Best ask3.1%
Min order5 contracts
Market Tape
LIVE| Market | YES | Min |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Fed rate cuts happen... | 0.1% | 5 |
| Jude Bellingham win the... | 0.1% | 5 |
| any country leave NATO... | 1.6% | 5 |
| Half-Life 3 be announce... | 24.0% | 5 |
| Lamine Yamal win the 20... | 24.0% | 5 |
| Lionel Messi win the 20... | 4.3% | 5 |
| Harry Kane win the 2026... | 56.1% | 5 |
| OpenAI not IPO by Decem... | 96.0% | 5 |
| Trump eliminates capita... | 1.8% | 5 |
| Kraken IPO by December... | 5.8% | 5 |
| OpenAI launch a new con... | 20.0% | 5 |
| MoistCr1TiKaL get a hai... | 4.0% | 5 |
| US recession by end of... | 10.0% | 5 |
| Mike Johnson out as Spe... | 10.0% | 5 |
| Ukraine election held b... | 1.2% | 5 |
| a team from LEC (Europe... | 4.8% | 5 |
| a team from LCP (Asia-P... | 0.2% | 5 |
| a team from LCS (North... | 1.9% | 5 |
Conviction marketGeopoliticsGlobal
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
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1.6% YES
98.4% NO
Event Details
Resolution summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Region
- Global
- Topic
- Geopolitics
- Resolution
- Jan 1, 2027
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