Conviction Markets

Margin desk

Open margin from real market prices.

Vault
Base Sepolia
Collateral
USDC
Markets
1
Wallet
--

Open margin

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

Culture
Details
Reference
23%
Exposure
Enter margin
Borrowed
Enter margin
Guard
18.8%

Enter outcome shares greater than zero.

Market flow

YES price candles

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Last trade
23c
Best bid
12c
Best ask
21c
Min order
5 contracts

Conviction renders synced price history inside the product. When history is unavailable, the chart shows only the latest stored bid, ask, and trade snapshot.

Conviction rules view

Market details and resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

Category
Culture
Resolution date
12/31/2026
YES token
Mapped
NO token
Mapped

Conviction keeps upstream feed URLs internal. Users review rules, signals, margin, and vault risk inside this product.

Social layer

Turn the market into a public thesis.

Share the odds, publish a signal, or start the debate around this market. Conversations stay public; execution still requires the core API and wallet flow.

Lens
Global / Geopolitics
Signals
0
Market
Conviction

Signal desk

Publish the thesis behind the trade.

Signals are real Farcaster-sourced records tied to synced markets. They stay separate from execution until the core API confirms a live adapter.

Signal ticket23%
Focused market
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CultureWill Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?23%

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Signals

Market signals

No signals yet

The core API has no signals for this market.